GLOOM seems to have descended at the start of 2016. Equity markets have had the worst start to the year in at least two decades. The great and the good have queued up to warn of the dangers ahead.
George Soros, a fund manager, said the Chinese financial environment reminded him of 2008, when the financial crisis was at its height. Larry Summers, a former American treasury secretary, declared in the Financial Times: “The global risk to domestic economic performance in the US, Europe and many emerging markets is as great as any time I can remember.” George Osborne, Britain’s chancellor, spoke of a “cocktail of threats” facing the global economy.
The chart shows a number of indicators of concern, from rising credit spreads (the interest-rate premium paid by risky borrowers) to slumping stockmarkets in the emerging world. Investors have many worries. The first is that the Chinese economy is weaker than the GDP statistics suggest. Falling commodity prices, the collapse in the Baltic Dry index (which tracks the cost of shipping bulk goods) and the sluggish growth of global trade can all be seen as...Continue reading
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