NORMALLY, when hedge funds shut up shop, it is because the results have been poor. But that is not the case with Martin Taylor of Nevsky Capital who is retiring with an average annual return of 18.4%, some 16 percentage points ahead of the hedge fund average. In his final report (courtesy of Zero Hedge), he says the game is not worth playing; like a batsman who has scored a century, he has tucked his bat under his arm and has headed back to the pavilion, to let someone else has a go.
The report is a fascinating read, not just for what he says about markets but for his views on the global economy. The main points are as follows.
1. Investors need good data if they are to make decisions but the rise of China and India has diluted the quality of that data.
Currently stated Chinese real GDP growth is 7.1% and India’s is 7.4%. Both are substantially over stated. This obfuscation and distortion of data, whether deliberate or inadvertent, makes it increasingly difficult to forecast macro and hence micro as well, for an ever growing share of our investment universe.
Companies are also disclosing less information and this increases the specific risk of investing in individual stocks and bonds.
2....Continue reading
from Economics http://ift.tt/1SbzNuV
via IFTTT
No comments:
Post a Comment