Thursday, 14 January 2016

From Russia with love

DEBT crises, capital flight and corruption are all familiar problems for poor countries trying to finance their development. A bulwark, say some, is remittances: money sent home by migrants, worth $580 billion in 2014. Unlike portfolio flows, which tend to flee at the first sign of trouble, remittances usually increase in tough times. And unlike aid, they go directly into the pockets of ordinary people, bypassing corrupt officials. All this is true, and important. But even remittances, alas, cannot always be relied upon. The experience in 2015 of Central Asia and the Caucasus, regions exceptionally dependent on remittances from Russia, shows why.

Some countries there export oil or gas. Others export people. In Tajikistan four in ten working-age adults have sought jobs abroad; in 2014 they sent home remittances equivalent to 42% of GDP, proportionally more than any other country in the world received. Armenia, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan also received remittances worth at least 10% of GDP—more than the Philippines, a country famous for its migrant workers.

Most migrants go north, to Russia, finding work on building sites or in...Continue reading

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