Monday, 19 October 2015

Official data say China's economy is barely slowing. Are they believable?

FOR most countries, delivering resilient growth when investors had expected an abrupt slowdown would be impressive. China is different. The announcement that its economy grew 6.9% in the third quarter, just below the second quarter’s 7% pace, is more grist for the already-brimming mill of scepticism about its data. Such are the doubts about Chinese figures that it is difficult to write a straightforward analysis of them without riddling it with caveats about what is and is not credible. So it is sensible to look at the latest numbers in two parts: what the government reported and what ought to be believed.

The official data are indeed impressive, not least because they cover a quarter during which concerns about China's economy were so widespread. July began with the Continue reading

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