SINCE the financial crisis began in 2007-08, developed world governments of both left and right have struggled to get re-elected (with the striking exception of Angela Merkel). So the Conservative victory in Britain is a double surprise. Not only did it confound the pre-election opinion polls, it came after five years in which the government failed to deliver an increase in the average standard of living.
How did they manage it and does Britain offer lessons and parallels for other countries? Can austerity be a vote-winning strategy? The first thing to note is that the Conservatives' national share of barely shifted; a small rise to 37% from 36% last time. The junior party in the coalition, the Liberal Democrats, lost two-thirds of its vote share and six-sevenths of its seats. In combination, the coalition parties' vote share has dropped from 59% to 45%.
Nevertheless, one still needs to explain why the Labour party, the main opposition, managed to increase its national vote share by just two percentage points (from 29% to 31%), especially as the previous election was one of Labour's worst ever results. It is not just that Labour was almost wiped out in Scotland, it failed to win converts in England either. The collapse of the LibDems might have been expected to help Labour, some of whose voters...Continue reading
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